Peter King For President?: The Pollitics Today Election News Dump!

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Deval Patrick, Kay Hagan, Mark Begich, Monica Lindeen, Peter King, politics, Tom Cotton

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Hello readers, I believe it is time for a new edition of the Election News Dump!  For those unfamiliar with this portion of the website, consider this where we put all the election stories that aren’t worthy of a full-length post but are still noteworthy.  We mostly stick with Senate and 2016 news unless something major happens in one of the House races.

With all that being said, let’s see what’s going on today in the electoral news.

Senate ’14

Montana:  Another Noteworthy Democrat Declines Bid

• Monica Lindeen Will Not Run For Senate

After the announcement that Brian Schweitzer would not enter the Montana Senate race, we turned our attention to the rest of the Democratic bench.  One of the names we dropped was that of Auditor Monica Lindeen who would be term-limited in 2016.  Lindeen has decided though to announce that she will not run for the Senate seat left though I wonder if it is out of deference to Superintendent of Public Education Denise Juneau who seems to be a good bet to earn establishment support and to run.

If Juneau does say no though, expect Democrats to go all-in to try to convince Lieutenant Governor John Walsh to enter the race.  If he declines, it gets ugly.

North Carolina:  Kay Hagan Widens Lead

• Kay Hagan Continues To Lead GOP Hopefuls

Republicans are foaming at the mouth (well that’s not a surprise) over taking back some of the Senate seats they lost in 2008, when Democrats steamrolled their way to 60 seats in the Senate.  One of the seats the Republicans are targeting is the one held by Kay Hagan of North Carolina.  Given how North Carolina, although trending its way to battleground status, is still fairly red; it makes sense.

Still, if they are going to take North Carolina they will need to step their game up as PPP finds Hagan with double digit leads over some of her current and potential challengers (including Reps. Renee Elmers and Virginia Foxx).  What really helps Hagan’s candidacy is the extreme unpopularity of the North Carolina Republican-held state legislature, which includes announced candidate Thom Tillis (who is House Speaker).

Alaska:  Begich Raises Money

• Mark Begich Nearly Raises $1 Million

Just like fellow freshman Kay Hagan, Mark Begich of Alaska will have the heat turned up on him this year as he vies for reelection.  Alaska however is much more red than North Carolina which leads to Begich’s target being a bit more wider.

Still the good news for Begich is that he brought in nearly $1 million this past quarter which gives him about $2 million cash on hand.  Alaska is a state without a major media market and its pretty easy to run in and Begich already has a nice war chest to work with.  I tend to think out of the group of Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu, Hagan & Begich that the latter two are the safest.  Hagan has no real big challengers and Begich might squeak by if the Republicans again nominate Joe Miller.

Arkansas:  Tom Cotton addresses attacks over “ambition”

• Tom Cotton Defends Ambition

Tom Cotton is probably going to run for Senate, I have nothing to prove that with other than the fact that he seems to really be prepping for it.  It’ll be a risk though if Cotton decides to run.  If he loses the Senate seat, he really will be out of politics as he would have to forfeit his newly-won House seat.

Pryor is probably the number one incumbent target of the GOP and if anything, Arkansas is getting more and more red by the cycle.  Still, Cotton will have to be fully sure he can win this or he’ll be giving up a shot at House leadership.

Race To The White House 2016

• Peter King Open To A 2016 Bid

Oh boy.  Peter King, the Long Island congressman that is equally obsessed and paranoid over national security, is apparently open to the idea of making a bid for the White House.  If King were interested in running (he wouldn’t have to cede his seat), it would probably be best if he retired from the House.  Vanity campaigns in potentially swing district sounds like a recipe for a prime pickup opportunity.

• Deval Patrick Not Running For President?

The reason I lobbed a question mark at the end just because you never know what’s going to happen, but it seems that we have our first denial of 2016!  Patrick though could be a prime VP candidate for whomever the Democrats nominate (HILLARY) for President.

Feel free to send tips in the comments section!

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2016 Poll: Hillary Still The Favorite

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Andrew Cuomo, Bobby Jindal, Brian Schweitzer, Chris Christie, Deval Patrick, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Joe Biden, Kirsten Gillibrand, Marco Rubio, Mark Warner, Martin O'Malley, Paul Ryan, politics, Polls, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Susana Martinez

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As we are only 1,316 days until the 2016 Presidential election, Public Policy Polling decided it was about time for them to release their next 2016 poll.  PPP polled the top Democrat and Republican Party candidates while also testing them in hypothetical general election campaigns.

So without further adu, let’s take a look at their findings and give you some analysis.

DEMOCRATS:

(With Hillary Clinton + Joe Biden):

1. Hillary Clinton – 64%
2. Joe Biden – 18%
3. Someone Else/Undecided – 6%
4. Elizabeth Warren – 5%
5. Andrew Cuomo – 3%
6. Mark Warner – 2%
7. Martin O’Malley, Kirsten Gillibrand, Brian Schweitzer, Deval Patrick – 1%

(Without Clinton, but with Biden):

1. Biden – 49%
2. Someone Else/Undecided – 15%
3. Warren – 11%
4. Cuomo – 10%
5. Gillibrand – 7%
6. Warner – 3%
7. Patrick / Schweitzer – 2%
8. O’Malley – 1%

(Without Clinton and Biden):

1. Someone Else/Undecided – 36%
2. Cuomo – 22%
3. Warren – 18%
4. O’Malley – 8%
5. Gillibrand – 5%
6. Warner – 5%
7. Patrick – 4%
8. Schweitzer – 1%

Analysis:

Crystal clear that Hillary Clinton is the main frontrunner for the Democratic nomination that shouldn’t shock anybody nor should the presence of Biden being the beneficiary in the scenario of her not running.  Cuomo and Warren are the only other two Democrats who appear to have any name recognition and while Cuomo seems to be building his national profile, I’m not sure Warren is attempting to run nationally.  Results should be unsettling for O’Malley who has been a presence on the Sunday morning talk shows and spoken at several state party dinners.  Gillibrand benefits the most (besides Biden) from Clinton staying on the sidelines which isn’t a huge shock.  Warner will likely be the choice pick for “moderates” in the party which explains his small well of support.  Patrick might be better suited as a VP pick and Schweitzer, as of now, is in the same boat.

Other potential candidates who weren’t polled could include Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper.

REPUBLICANS:

1. Marco Rubio – 21%
2. Rand Paul – 17%
3. Chris Christie – 15%
4. Paul Ryan/Jeb Bush – 12%
5. Someone Else/Undecided – 10%
6. Rick Santorum – 5%
7. Bobby Jindal – 4%
8. Rick Perry – 2%
9. Susana Martinez – 1%

Analysis:

Considering how wide open the GOP primary can be there was only one poll PPP did.  Rubio remains the frontrunner and even though he’s now getting more of the limelight, it doesn’t appear to be affecting his primary numbers.  Rand Paul, on the other hand, has surged to levels his father has never had in early polls which is good news for him.  Christie remains a frontrunner early on but his numbers amongst “very conservative” voters probably will hurt him in Iowa.  Not great numbers for Ryan/Bush at all especially considering the latter is thought to be one of the main frontrunners.  Santorum continues to have his small percentage of the vote and Jindal’s efforts to earn exposure (like O’Malley) have so far failed.  Perry’s numbers are hilarious and Martinez is mostly unknown.

Other potential candidates not included were Jon Huntsman Jr., Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

GENERAL ELECTION:

• Hillary Clinton: 46%, Chris Christie: 42%
• Hillary Clinton: 49%, Rand Paul: 43%
• Hillary Clinton: 49%, Marco Rubio: 42%
• Hillary Clinton: 50%, Paul Ryan: 43%
• Joe Biden: 40%, Christie: 49%
• Joe Biden: 47%, Paul: 43%
• Joe Biden: 46%, Rubio: 44%
• Joe Biden: 48%, Ryan: 45%

Analysis:

This seems to fit the idea that Chris Christie is the best bet for the Republican Party to win a national election though its interesting how Paul Ryan, who has experience as a national candidate, appears to be the weakest candidate.

For Hillary Clinton however, she continues to hover around the all important 50% number that really cements someone as the overall frontrunner.  As of now, she is doing the correct thing by laying low and privately preparing the groundwork.  While Biden has his best shot at the Presidency in 2016, it is probably not going to end up in his favor.

Remember though, we were preparing for Clinton vs. Rudy Giuliani this time in 2005.  This is just for fun.

Barney Frank Open To Being Temporary Senator

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Barney Frank, Democrats, Deval Patrick, John Kerry, Massachusetts, politics

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With the 113th Congress officially open (or closed depending on your cynicism) for business, we are getting close to the nomination of current Massachusetts senior Senator John Kerry for the Secretary of State position.

But the eventual vacancy of Kerry’s Senate seat will leave the Massachusetts delegation with one Senator.  Massachusetts law dictates that the Governor (Deval Patrick) can appoint an interim Senator before a special election takes place three months later.  The temporary appointment CAN run in the special election but Patrick favors having an appointment who will retire after their term is up.

As some of you may remember in 2009, following the death of longtime Senator Ted Kennedy, Patrick appointed longtime Kennedy aide Paul Kirk to be the interim Senator.  Patrick’s preference for a temporary placeholder isn’t a huge deal because he believes that it would be hard to simultaneously hold a seat while campaign for it at the same time.

However, when it comes to being a placeholder; few names have come up.  Most of the speculation has centered around former Massachusetts Governor (and 1988 Democratic Presidential nominee) Michael Dukakis or Ted Kennedy’s widow Vicki to fill the seat though both have appeared to be uninterested in the position.

Enter now retired (as of yesterday) Rep. Barney Frank.  Frank, one of the more productive legislators in the House, had previously been uninterested in the position but today he formally expressed interest in serving in the Senate seat.

It should come as no surprise though that Frank has interest given his interest in economic issues and with the likely standoff over the debt ceiling approaching, he would be a valuable voice in the Senate.

Frank, who married his longtime partner James Ready last July in a ceremony officiated by Deval Patrick, would also be the second openly gay Senator in history (the first being Tammy Baldwin who was sworn in yesterday) which is also particularly noteworthy.

Now will Frank’s eagerness in serving lead Patrick to appoint him?  That remains to be seen, however, it looks like he has to be considered one of the favorites to be named.

President Obama Nominates John Kerry For Secretary Of State

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Barney Frank, Deval Patrick, Ed Markey, Elections, John Kerry, Michael Dukakis, politics, President Barack Obama, Scott Brown, Vicki Kennedy

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As long expected, today President Obama has nominated Massachusetts Senator John Kerry to the Secretary of State position which is soon-to-be vacated by Hillary Clinton.  Kerry has had a long and distinguished career in the Senate and even though there will be a special election to fill Kerry’s seat which could create headaches for the Democratic Party.

But Kerry does deserve the spot of the nation’s top diplomat.  He’s been clamoring for it for a while and his heroism in Vietnam was almost desecrated by right-wing attack groups.

In his nomination presser, which just happened within the past five minutes, Kerry was praised by Obama for his credentials and Obama also touted the fact that Kerry chose him to speak as the keynote at the 2004 Democratic National Convention.  Obama also touted the role John Kerry played in his debate prep as he portrayed Mitt Romney in practice sessions.

Nonetheless, the appointment of Kerry won’t exactly send shockwaves throughout the Beltway but outside of Kerry; the happiest person in the world could very well be Scott Brown.

Brown, the soon-to-be former Senator, is already plotting his political comeback and Kerry’s seat is clearly the one that he pines for.  But Democrats should be genuinely worried?

If Deval Patrick holds to the same form he did after the death of Ted Kennedy, he will likely tab a temporary Senator that will hold the seat until the special election.  Most speculation has swirled around either former Governor and 1988 Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis, Vicki Kennedy or even retiring Rep. Barney Frank.

When the special election takes the plunge we can likely expect Reps. Ed Markey, Mike Capuano and Stephen Lynch to throw their hat in the ring.  Remember John Kerry and Ted Kennedy served Massachusetts since 1985.  Since then there’s been plenty of rising Massachusetts Democrats who had to agonizingly wait their turn as the two liberal icons became institutions in the state.

Now the Massachusetts delegation will be led by Elizabeth Warren who won her first election that she ran in November.  Talk about change.

But for Democrats, the possibility of Senator Scott Brown (again) has to create headaches.  While he is popular, Massachusetts still has a blue tint and remember Brown partially (and some would say totally) won due to the poor campaigning of AG Martha Coakley.  If Markey is the nominee, you’d have to think that the race would tighten up as progressive groups would rally around the Representative and his name became more well-known at the state level.

Still, the race is to be run and this is going to take a couple of months to sort out.

Ashley Judd For Senate and 2016 Speculation? The Pollitics Today Election News Dump

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2016 Presidential Race, Andrew Cuomo, Ashley Judd, Bill Cassidy, Brian Schweitzer, Chris Christie, Condoleezza Rice, Deval Patrick, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Joe Biden, John Kerry, Mark Begich, Mark Warner, Martin O'Malley, Mary Landrieu, Mike Huckabee, Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan, politics, Rick Santorum, Scott Brown, Steve King, Tom Harkin

With about 99.9% of the election done, we will know look to the future for our political news stories.  This section will mostly be dedicated to pure news and our take on it but will focus on news blurbs for the 2014 and 2016 electoral cycles.  See a candidate going to Iowa or New Hampshire?  Here is the place to go.

Now some stories will also get their own article, but for the most part we will just give quick blurbs to the news.  Right now, with everything so far away, this probably won’t be a daily occurrence but the day will likely come where it is.

So let’s see what is going on in the political world?

2016 Presidential News?
The feature part of each news dump will be those with Presidential aspirations.  Now, while 2016 is obviously further away than 2012, we do think that the race for the Presidency always takes precedent.

• Marco Rubio Goes To Iowa?
  

Let the jockeying begin.  As erroneously reported by some people in the news, this is actually Rubio’s second visit to the Hawkeye State with his first coming back in May.  Rubio this time around is the headline speaker at a birthday fundraiser for Gov. Terry Branstad.  Clearly this will kickoff not only talk of a Rubio ’16 bid but of Branstad possibly endorsing the young Senator before the Iowa caucus.  I’m fairly certain that Rubio will eventually end up running but he’s still very young and has a lot of time ahead of him.

• Hillary Clinton Would Dominate Iowa Caucus

This poll, done for Politico by Public Policy Polling, shows that the current Secretary of State as the overwhelming favorite amongst Iowa Democrats with Vice President Joe Biden and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo falling behind.  If Clinton wants the bid, it looks like it should be hers for the taking.  However if she doesn’t run, Biden immediately becomes the favorite with Cuomo trailing and if neither run?  Cuomo leads Elizabeth Warren 30% to 13%.  Other polled candidates include Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer and Virginia Senator Mark Warner.

This poll does show, however, that Andrew Cuomo has done a solid job of earning some name recognition.  While it is very possible that a lot of that comes from the popularity of his father Mario, Cuomo has done what other candidates have been unable to do and that’s get their name out there.  Cuomo would probably be the best “moderate” choice of the group and his passing of marriage equality and the decriminalization of marijuana already smell like opportunism for 2016.  If Clinton, Biden, and Warren do not run; expect liberals/progressives to gravitate towards O’Malley or Patrick.

• Chris Christie, Hillary Lead New Hampshire

Following Public Policy Polling’s look at Iowa ’16, PPP (this time for Talking Points Memo) also dipped their toes in the water and polled New Hampshire.  New Hampshire, the first-in-the-nation primary, usually tilts moderate on both sides of the aisle.

On the Republican side, 21% of voters favored the New Jersey Governor.  Following Christie is Rubio at 14%, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at 13%, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 11% and Vice Presidential nominee and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan at 10%.  Polling in single digits were 2008 candidate Mike Huckabee at 8%, 2012 candidate Rick Santorum at 5% and 2008 VP nominee Sarah Palin tied with Kentucky Senator Rand Paul at 4%.

A couple surprising takeaways from this survey is how Jeb Bush is polling at only 11% and how Christie’s support amongst “somewhat conservative” and “very conservative” pollers was low.  Granted Bush’s brother, ex-President George W., didn’t run away with New Hampshire in 2000; you’d still think that Jeb would be a big front-runner right now.

Christie’s unpopularity amongst the far right might have something to do with his newfound “friendship” with Barack Obama aka, appreciating Obama’s help in the wake of the destruction left behind by Hurricane Sandy.  Could this really hurt him?

Now for the Democrats, Clinton would overwhelmingly dominate if she ran.  New Hampshire Democrats gave her 60% of the vote with Biden trailing at 10%, Cuomo at 7%, Elizabeth Warren at 4% and Deval Patrick at 3%.  Clearly Clinton is the favorite in 2016 amongst the Democrats no matter how you slice it and NH’s close proximity to New York and Massachusetts appear to help the other candidates.

If Clinton doesn’t run?  Biden gaps Cuomo with a 26% to 15% lead with Elizabeth Warren in third at 11% and Deval Patrick in fourth with 9%.  If Biden also doesn’t take the plunge?  Cuomo wins with 22% to Patrick’s 18% and Warren’s 15%.

The other candidates barely crack 1% showing that O’Malley, Schweitzer and Warner need to really hit the trails hard if they intend to run.  This poll does not survey other potential candidates such as New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa who could look at ’16 as the right time to run.

The main takeaway is though?  We are another day closer to finding out who runs and who does not.

2014 Senate Races

• Ashley Judd Vs. Mitch McConnell in 2014?

The hot news over the past couple days when discussing 2014 is the possibility that actress Ashley Judd would go head-to-head against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.  McConnell has announced he will run for another term, though this would be the biggest recruit Kentucky Democrats had against him.  But surely, Judd would deny the speculation right?

No.  Judd said this:

“I cherish Kentucky, heart and soul, and while I’m very honored by the consideration, we have just finished an election, so let’s focus on coming together to keep moving America’s families, and especially our kids, forward,” she said.

Not exactly a denial at all, huh?  In fact; I’d venture that it’s almost a statement of wanting to examine her options.  Judd is a resident of Tennessee and would have to re-establish a residency in Kentucky but now the speculation is out there; so let’s see what happens next.

• Steve King Looking To Challenge Tom Harkin?

Tom Harkin, the longtime Democratic senator from Iowa, has been a mainstay in Senate for nearly 20 years.  His potential next challenger, however, might have more of a tea-influenced tint.

Steve King, a highly popular Congressman amongst the far-right, is teasing the potential of him running for Senate.  However would King really risk losing as there would be little way that he could swing independent voters to his side.  As a Democrat, I’m half rolling my eyes and half celebrating that King could make a potential swing state easier to win.

• Is Scott Brown Sensing An Opportunity?

After his loss to progressive rockstar Elizabeth Warren, soon-to-be-former Senator Scott Brown may soon be able to earn his way back into the Senate.

John Kerry, the senior Senator and 2004 Democratic Presidential candidate, has been mentioned as one of the top candidates to replace retiring SoS Hillary Clinton.  If Kerry is tabbed, Deval Patrick would pick a temporary Senator who would sit and vote until a special election was held later.  Famously, the Democrats lost Ted Kennedy’s seat to Brown after Kennedy’s death, Paul Kirk’s appointment, and the horrible campaigning of Martha Coakley allowed Scott Brown to become a Senator.

Now he might find another way again.

• Rep. Bill Cassidy To Challenge Mary Landrieu?

Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana may very well be one of the most endangered Senators in the 2014 cycle.  She’s a Democrat in the Deep South after all and Louisiana has a deep bench of Republican candidates looking to unseat her.

Rumors are swirling that Rep. Bill Cassidy, a three-term Congressman, might be inching his way to the race and Cassidy is not saying no.  Now with candidates such as Governor Bobby Jindal in the state, Cassidy would not be the #1 choice for Louisiana Republicans but still; this will be a hotly contested race.

For records sake, Cassidy had no Democratic opposition for his Congressional seat and in 2008 (a year in which Democrats had their best cycle ever), Landrieu beat State Treasurer John N. Kennedy by a 52% to 46% margin.

• Mark Begich Continuing To Raise Money 

Alaska Democratic Senator Mark Begich, like Landrieu, is probably one of the top targets for the 2014 election cycle.  However, he seems to be really hitting the fundraiser trails hard and given how you don’t need too much money to hit the airwaves in Alaska; this could be a huge boon by him.

No high-profile Republicans have been linked to him yet, but I’d expect to see a very contested primary amongst the GOP; especially if Joe Miller throws his hat into the ring again.

Stay Tuned For More!

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Deval Patrick Speaks To Iowa Democrats: 2016?

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Deval Patrick

Well, the first potential traveling of the 2016 campaign season may have been done by Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley when he spoke to a group of New Hampshire Democrats.

Not to be outdone, current Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick was the keynote speaker of the Iowa Democratic Convention.  Patrick was speaking on behalf of President Obama and praised Iowa Democrats for “helping people to help themselves” but also had a slight rebuke to the party by stating that Democrats were “too timid” and urged them “to grow a backbone” in response to the constant barrage of Republican attacks.

But Patrick’s sharpest criticisms came when he blasted the Republicans for their union-crushing by stating:

Once you cut through their slogans and soundbytes, all that today’s Republicans are saying is that if we shrink government, cut taxes, crush unions and wait, all will be well,” Patrick said. “History has proven that thesis wrong time after time after time.

Patrick replaced Mitt Romney as the Governor of the Bay State and at one point looked vulnerable in the 2010 mid-term elections but saw his popularity surge before the election.

If Deval Patrick were to run, he’d be a name to watch.  He wouldn’t challenge Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden or Andrew Cuomo right away but his closeness to President Obama could be of assistance.  Otherwise, he is still a rising star in the Democratic Party.

Source:  http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/06/16/democratic-convention-deval-patrick-implores-party-to-grow-a-backbone/