Scott Brown Moves To New Hampshire: The Election News Dump

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2016, Al Baldasaro, Brian Schweitzer, Bruce Braley, Elections, Iowa, Jim Messina, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Joni Ernst, Mark Jacobs, Montana, New Hampshire, politics, Scott Brown, Steve Stockman, Terry Branstad

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Hey remember this feature we used to have?  In case you are a new follower or reader, the election news dump is basically a roundup of all the election news that didn’t get its own article on Pollitics Today.  Its mostly brief news bits with a small bit of analysis.  We look at the Senate races, White House races and some of the Taking Back The House districts when applicable.

So sit back and see what has happened that you might’ve missed!

Senate ’14

New Hampshire:  Scott Brown Moves To New Hampshire, Conservative Looks Into Race

• Scott Brown Plans New Hampshire Move

One of the bigger stories to follow within the next year is if former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown decides to vie for the Republican nomination for Senate in New Hampshire.  Brown, who lost in 2012 to Elizabeth Warren after his dramatic 2010 special election win, has seemingly been flirting with the idea throughout the calendar year.

Brown claims the move is “strictly personal” but he is going to have to make a decision soon as the state party is getting antsy with his flirtation.  I guess the possibility of a 2016 presidential run isn’t completely far’fetched but Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is waiting in the wings as her first term winds down.

So will Brown make a move?  Carpet bagging, especially after JUST losing in a highly covered race, probably isn’t the best idea.

• Al Baldasaro Looks Into Senate Race

As Brown continues to waffle, state Rep. Al Baldasaro is looking into running for office.  Baldasaro might best well be known for his claim that the state of New Hampshire sold a adopted child to a homosexual couple for $10,000,

Pollitics Today encourages him to run.

Montana:  Obama Campaign Manager Says “No” To Possible Appointment

• Jim Messina Rejects Holding Baucus’s Seat

After the news of President Obama tabbing retiring Sen. Max Baucus (of Montana) to be the newest Ambassador to China; some speculation settled on former Obama campaign manager Jim Messina to be a placeholder.

However Messina, a former chief of staff to Baucus, tweeted that he had no interest in being appointed and cited that he wanted to continue to help President Obama and grow his own firm.

Iowa:  Republican Candidate Hits The Air; Braley Barely Leads

• Mark Jacobs Hits The Airwaves

Republican businessman Mark Jacobs, running for the party’s nomination for Senate, is hitting the airwaves with a $100,000 (!) buy.  Jacobs is a former executive of Reliant Energy and just moved to the state last year.  So he’s basically trying to buy his way to face likely Democratic nominee; Bruce Braley.

• Bruce Braley Barley (say that three times fast) Leads Field

Even in light of President Obama’s lowest approval ratings in Iowa, likely Democratic nominee Rep. Bruce Braley still seems to be the frontrunner.  Braley leads state senator Joni Ernst by a 44-38 margin, U.S. attorney Matt Whitaker by a 43-40 margin and Jacobs by a 46-37 gap.

I can only imagine that Republicans will likely expend their energy in other states before Iowa but its probably best to assume that them winning Iowa would be a “cherry on top” scenario.  Luckily Democrats have a solid candidate who is vying to replace longtime Sen. Tom Harkin so hopefully they won’t need to spend too much on this race considering the Iowa GOP is summing up their JV team.

Now President Obama’s approval ratings could be worrisome, however this far out (eleven months); I wouldn’t worry too much yet.

Texas: Hahahahahahaha

• New Poll Shows Cornyn Crushing Steve Stockman

One of the big things I regret not covering is Rep. Steve Stockman’s announcement that he would challenge Sen. John Cornyn in a primary.  Stockman, the definition of a bombastic Tea Party-backed congressman (i.e. his mouth is bigger than his power), doesn’t have much money on him but he will certainly bring the fun to what would’ve been a boring primary (other perennial-esque candidates are in the race too).

Well, here’s a laugh.  Stockman currently polls 6% against Cornyn’s 50%.  I guess stranger things have happened but as of now, hahahahahahahaha.

White House 2016

• Branstad: Biden is “dead meat” in Iowa 

Republican Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, in his thousandth term as Governor, stated that if VP Joe Biden is willing to make a third presidential bid (as he is widely assumed to be considering) he would be “dead meat’ due to his association with the current administration.

I’d venture that if Biden does make a run, he’d most likely either be defeated because of Hillary Clinton or the fact that a better challenger comes in.  No Democrat will bash Biden too hard as they wouldn’t want to upset President Obama whose endorsement will likely be very much coveted amongst Democratic hopefuls.

• Brian Schweitzer Visits Iowa

I think of all the candidates, from both sides of the aisle, former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer is one of the most likely to make a presidential run.  Schweitzer, the very popular and charismatic ex-Gov., has been visiting Iowa lately and has been blasting presumed frontrunner Hillary Clinton over her Iraq War vote.

Schweitzer has been polling in the very low single digits throughout the early polling of 2016 and while there’s plenty of time, he might want to start getting established in Iowa now than later.

More to come throughout weekend.  Send any tips to polliticstoday@gmail.com

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Wendy Davis To Run For Governor

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Greg Abbott, politics, Texas, Wendy Davis

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It looks like one of the worst-kept electoral secrets in America is about to be formally announced as State Sen. Wendy Davis of Texas is preparing to launch a gubernatorial run.

Davis, who is best known for her legendary filibuster (a political moment that has launched her from a budding star to a supernova), will be the likely Democratic nominee to go up against AG Greg Abbott.  Current Governor Rick Perry will not run for another term, which will give Texas their second Governor of the new millennium and maybe their first who can master complete sentences.

But, as I have examined earlier, how strong are Davis’s odds in seeking the Governor’s Mansion?  I am still of the belief that it is somewhere between “not great” and “minimal” but that’s not cause for defeat quite yet.  Abbott will likely trounce Davis (and to be fair, any state-level politician) in fundraising as he has practically been running for Governor for the past four plus years.  Texas is still a nice shade of red and while there has been plenty of hype about turning the state blue; we still have to see the votes before we get too excited.

The 2014 election cycle is slightly more than a year away (wait, really?) and Davis may not have enough time to turn Texas blue.

But then again, she’s a full-fledged star now.  This isn’t some fledging prospect who is heavily hyped but has to work on name recognition.  Davis is one of the few real special up-and-coming Democrats who has a national name and even casual observers remember her fight for women’s health.  She may not be Elizabeth Warren in some respects but she’s a proven fighter and if she can filibuster for hours on end, fundraising and hand-shaking will be a piece of cake.

If Democrats REALLY want a 50-State Strategy, you need people like Wendy Davis.  You need stars who are willing to take a risk and make a run for major offices in mid-term elections.  No offense to him, but Wendy Davis isn’t Paul Sadler (the nominee Democrats had to face off against Ted Cruz for Senator in 2012).  She’s a household name that can not only potentially be very competitive in a race but also bring in money and register new voters.  The only way the Democrats are going to make inroads in these states will be with well-known candidates who can help build the party up and drum up turnout.

Wendy Davis has already been in some big fights.  She has already been through plenty of adversity in her life in which she will be able to carve a pretty excellent message.  She’s not an unknown quantity, she’s a quality candidate and represents the Democrats best shots at winning a major election in Texas in quite some time.

Will that translate to a win?  Still unlikely, but will there be felt repercussions?  You bet.

 

2014 & 2016 Dominate The News: The Pollitics Today Election News Dump

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Chris Christie, Cory Booker, Dan Benishek, David Perdue, Denise Juneau, Hillary Clinton, Iowa, Jack Kingston, Jerry Cannon, John Walsh, Karen Handel, Ken Buck, Mark Pryor, Mark Udall, Michelle Nunn, Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey, politics, Rick Santorum, Ted Cruz, Thad Cochran, Tom Cotton

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After a week-long hiatus, its time for a new edition of the Pollitics Today Election News Dump!  This will focus on all of the election news that has dropped within the last week and some brief analysis on it.  Think of all the stories as mini-articles and something to keep in mind as we inch closer to the 2014 election cycle.

Senate ’14

Georgia:  Poll Shows Nunn Leading Some, Gingrey Leading Republicans

• Rep. Phil Gingrey Leads Republicans In Crowded Primary

One of the most fascinating primaries in the country will take place in Georgia next year as the Republican field has a clown car of infamous Republicans fighting it out.  In a new poll by PPP though, it seems Rep. Phil Gingrey is the “frontrunner” in the race.  Gingrey polled at 25% and was followed by Rep. Paul Broun with 19%, Rep. Jack Kingston with 15%, Karen Handel at 13%, and businessman David Perdue at 5%.

Gingrey is a very conservative Republican who once said that Todd Akin was “kind of right” about his controversial comments on rape.  But, he’s probably not the ideal candidate for Democrats, a title which goes to Broun who is as incendiary as they come. Kingston would probably be the most formidable Republican in the race but with his smaller district and support; he’s going to have his work cut out for him.

• Michelle Nunn Matches Field In Early Poll

Well Michelle Nunn might have her work cut out for her as she tries to turn a seat blue but as of now, she at least potentially contending.  In a poll released by PPP, the Points of Light Foundation CEO finds herself in decent shape as her campaign begins to officially roll out.

Nunn is tied with Gingrey at 41% and Perdue at 40%.  Against Karen Handel and Jack Kingston she leads by a 40%-38% margin, leads Paul Broun by a 41%-36% and edges out two minor candidates by five and six points.

While Nunn validates the fact that Broun would be the ideal candidate, its worth noting that she doesn’t rise above 42% which means that she has a good floor but maybe not a high ceiling.  While Georgia might be more welcoming to a Democrat than other states and its worth noting that undecideds overwhelmingly voted for Romney meaning they might be waiting to see the GOP nominee before deciding.  Still, the race is a near toss-up and Democrats really should hope Broun should be the nominee.

Arkansas:  Tom Cotton Is In, Pryor Looks Very Vulnerable

• Tom Cotton Enters Race

First-term Republican Rep. Tom Cotton has formally entered the Senate race to take on Democrat Mark Pryor in Arkansas.  Cotton who, for some reason (maybe someone can tell me why), looks like one of the party’s rising stars was the RSCC’s choice to take on the highly vulnerable Pryor.

Its worth noting though that Cotton is really taking a risk.  Cotton has to forfeit his House seat for a run and if he loses, it’ll be hard to get back in.  Nonetheless, news just came out today that Cotton said in 1997 that one of young women’s “greatest fears” is men leaving them.  Considering the Democratic Party has been rightfully (and consistently) hammering the right’s “War on Women”; Cotton might not be the perfect candidate that the Republicans thought he’d be.

• Pryor Leads Cotton By Eight

A new poll conducted by AFSCME (a pro-Democratic group) shows Mark Pryor beating Cotton by eight points (or a 43% to 35% margin).  Normally that would look great but there is a lot of cause for caution here.

Arkansas is red and the fact is Pryor is an incumbent and is only testing at 43% which is far below the 50% threshold that’s so important.  There is time left but that might hurt Pryor more than help him as Cotton becomes more well-known.  Then again, maybe Cotton won’t do so hot.

Still, this is worth being antsy about as you wish the numbers could be better.

Montana:  Another Democrat Declines Run

• Denise Juneau Says No To Senate Bid

Dammit.  Denise Juneau, who I thought would be Montana’s 2nd-best Democrat besides Brian Schweitzer, to run for Senate has declined a bid.  Juneau seems to be a rising star and she also stated that she wouldn’t be seeking a House seat (Montana has one, currently held by Republican Steve Daines).

This really puts Democrats in a lurch to find a candidate and they desperately need one if they want to keep their Senate majority.  This now leaves Lieutenant Governor John Walsh as the last viable option.

Colorado:  Tea Party Darling Is Back

• Ken Buck Enters Senate Race

He’s baaaaaackkkk.  Ken Buck, one of the many Tea Party backed candidates that cost the Republicans a shot at a Senate majority, is running again in 2014; this time against Mark Udall.  Buck is best remembered for beating establishment backed choice Jane Norton and for comparing homosexuality to alcoholism.

This is one race Democrats can probably exhale a bit on.

Mississippi:  What Will Thad Cochran Do?

• Still No Word On Cochran Reelection Plans

A new article by POLITICO shows that the Republican establishment is getting antsy (and soon to be annoyed) over the continued stalling by longtime Sen. Thad Cochran to announce if he will run for office again.  Cochran, who has held the seat since being elected in 1978, has some power as he is a ranking member of the Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee.

But if Cochran doesn’t run, it will create a mad scramble to find a Republican nominee though the seat will likely be safely red.

Pollitics Today’s Coverage of 2014 races

• Kentucky: Mitch McConnell’s Campaign Manager Doesn’t Like Him
• Kentucky:  Grimes Leads In Internal Poll
• New Jersey Coverage
• Alaska:  Begich Vulnerable

White House 2016

• Iowa Still A Popular Destination

Yup, politicians are still flocking to Iowa as this weekend Ted Cruz and Rick Santorum will visit the state.  Cruz is in the state for the second time in three weekends and Santorum is revisiting the site of his triumph of January 2012.

EMILY’s List is also sponsoring a forum which will be attended by Claire McCaskill of Missouri.  McCaskill is already a backer of Hillary Clinton however.

• Christie Narrowly Leading In New Hampshire, Clinton Dominating

A new poll by WMUR Granite State shows New Jersey Governor Chris Christie edging out the field while Hillary Clinton runs train over the Democrats.

Christie scores the support of 21% and is followed by Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul who scores 16%.  The rest of the field goes former Gov. Jeb Bush at 10%, Rep. Paul Ryan at 8%, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 6% with Cruz, Santorum and Texas Gov. Rick Perry tied at 4%.  Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker rounds out the field with 2%.

Man has Rubio fallen.  Outside of that, no real shocks as this has been following the trend of Chris Christie being fairly popular in the Granite State.

On Team Blue, Hillary Clinton demolishes the field with 62% and her closest challenger, VP Joe Biden scores 8%.  The rest of the field is Gov. Deval Patrick of Massachusetts at 5%, Newark Mayor Cory Booker at 2% and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo at 1%.  I guess Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O’Malley and Mark Warner were unavailable to be polled?

Pollitics Today 2016 News:

• Cory Booker Denies 2016 Interest
• Is Amy Klobuchar A Viable 2016 Option?

Taking Back The House News

• Taking Back The House Approved Candidate Jerry Cannon Is In

Jerry Cannon, a retired military general and former Gitmo commander, will challenge incumbent Rep. Dan Benishek in Michigan’s first congressional district.  Cannon is a solid recruit and one that could really shake up things.  To see our Taking Back The House segment with Benishek and Cannon, check this out.

What race are you looking forward to?

Even Mitch McConnell’s Campaign Manager Doesn’t Like Him

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Jesse Benton, Kentucky, Mitch McConnell, politics, Rand Paul, Ron Paul

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Jeez, I don’t know how to begin this article since I’m against the usage of the phrase “LOL” but screw it, certain times call for certain measures.  LOL.

Here’s a bit of a backstory before we get into the specifics.  In a quest to show that he is amply conservative enough and to beat down a possible primary challenge from Rep. Thomas Massie (he’s in the Ron Paul vein), Mitch McConnell decided to name Jesse Benton his campaign manager.  Benton is probably best known for being the chairman of Ron Paul’s failed 2012 presidential campaign and is also married to a granddaughter of the retired Congressman.

As they are well-known for, Paulites are as dedicated as they come to their candidate.  As much as I detest the Pauls and libertarianism, you can not deny the fact that they love their candidate and mostly would only support them and not the party nominee.  The Paulites are mostly composed of younger, college/grad school aged males who have used the internet pretty well.  They also are great at typing in caps lock and yelling “WAKE UP SHEEPLE” but that’s for another day.

Anyway, Benton has been heading McConnell’s reelection bid for some time now and in early January; he received a phone call Dennis Fusaro, a one-time aide for Ron Paul.  Now Fusaro apparently recorded the phone call, which really isn’t a cool thing to do but whatever, and I guess the topic of a potential Rand Paul 2016 candidacy came up in conversation.

Well, here’s what Benton (remember the CAMPAIGN MANAGER of the McConnell reelection) stated about working for McConnell:

Between you and me, I’m sort of holdin’ my nose for two years because what we’re doing here is going to be a big benefit to Rand in ’16, so that’s my long vision.

“I’m sort of holdin’ my nose for two years” (the election is obviously in November 2014) is something you don’t want to exactly hear from your team.  Considering that McConnell is in what could be a heated primary against businessman Matt Bevin and guaranteed-to-be-ugly general against Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes; this isn’t a welcome piece of news.  It also opens up the possibility that McConnell isn’t sufficiently conservative as the conservative that works for him can’t stand it.

Now, will this make much of a difference?  Unlikely but its another piece of unwelcome news for the Senate Minority Leader who looks like he’ll have the fight for his political life in a primary and a general.

Oh boy.

 

Liz Cheney Starts From Behind: The Pollitics Today Election News Dump

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Al Gore, Andrew Cuomo, Ben Sasse, Bobby Jindal, Brian Schatz, Brian Schweitzer, Chris Christie, Chris Coons, Christine O'Donnell, Colleen Hanabusa, Cory Booker, Dave Freudenthal, Dick Durbin, Doug Truax, Ed Markey, Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Joe Biden, Kirsten Gillibrand, Liz Cheney, Marco Rubio, Mark Warner, Martin O'Malley, Mike Enzi, Paul Ryan, politics, Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, Scott Brown, Susana Martinez, Ted Cruz

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So I’ve decided to make the Election News Dump a weekly feature and every Friday night, expect it to be posted here.  I felt the best way to utilize this feature that focuses on races that may not be worth a full article was to make it an end-of-the-week recap instead of an irregular feature.

Well now that you can set your calendars to when this feature is up, let’s take a look at the week that was in politics!

Senate ’14

Wyoming:  Liz Cheney Has A Ways To Go

• PPP: Cheney Trails Enzi By A Large Margin

After the news that Liz Cheney, daughter of former (feels so great saying that) Vice President Dick Cheney, would primary longtime Republican Sen. Mike Enzi of Wyoming; Public Policy Polling decided to test out the race.  If you are a supporter of Liz Cheney, well this news wasn’t exactly good as she trails Enzi by a 26% to 54% margin.

Now in some cases, with this much time left, it wouldn’t be that bad of a place to be in.  For example Marco Rubio trailed then-Governor Charlie Crist by a large margin before eventually forcing Crist out of the primary (and the party).  But in Cheney’s case, this is a kiss of death as 45% of Wyoming Republicans believe she would be a better fit running for Senator in Virginia as opposed to Wyoming.  Almost a majority of Wyoming Republicans think Cheney is a carpetbagger which is a very poor place to begin a nascent campaign.

But Democrats shouldn’t get their hopes up too much as former Governor Dave Freudenthal (who remains quite popular in the state) still trails Enzi by a 23-point margin in a hypothetical general election matchup.  Freudenthal does edge out Cheney by three points but I can’t envision a scenario in which he takes the bait.  I’m of the belief though that if you want to compete anywhere, you must put a decent challenger up there so maybe the Democrats convince him or Gary Trauner to try to start something.

Delaware:  Hey, Remember Her?

• Christine O’Donnell Talks Up Potential 2014 Campaign

She may not be a witch, but she is considering another campaign for Senate!  That’s right Christine O’Donnell, the candidate who essentially ruined the Republican Party’s chances of winning a Senate seat in 2010, is stirring the pot by hinting that she could challenge Chris Coons in a rematch of the previous campaign.

O’Donnell who is a Tea Party firebrand and perennial candidate does have legitimate reasons though for not wanting to run.  Her father had two heart surgeries in the past year and her mother just came off a year of chemotherapy.  In all seriousness, our best wishes to both of her parents because that sounds like a really tough thing to go through.

Delaware Republicans might not have much of a chance of unseating Coons, who could very well become a leader in the Senate due to his age (49 years old) and Delaware being a very dark blue state.  However with tight legislative races, its best for the party to not have a controversial candidate at the top.

Nebraska:  Republican field begins to form

• Ben Sasse To Jump Into Nebraska Senate Race

Freshman Senator Mike Johanns is retiring after only one term in the Senate and this race has been rather under-the-radar.  Thanks to Nebraska being dark red, its widely assumed that whoever comes out of the Republican primary will win the general.  Ben Sasse, president of Midland University, will throw his hat into the primary that includes State Treasurer Shane Osborn and attorney Bart McLeay.

Sasse will also likely be joined by 2006 nominee Pete Ricketts.

Illinois:  Dick Durbin Gets A Challenger

• Businessman Announces Candidacy Against Durbin

Dick Durbin is long thought to be one of the safest incumbents thanks to his large war chest, his position in Senate leadership (the #2 ranking Democrat) and Illinois being a safe haven for Democrats.

Businessman Doug Truax wants to change that up though and has announced his candidacy.  Truax is co-founder of Veritas Risk Services and will likely be able to self-fund as he fits the bill of a rich one-man corporation.  Still, this seat is sapphire-blue if that’s such a thing.

Massachusetts:  Ed Markey Beats Scott Brown In Early Poll

• Ed Markey Looks Safe

A lot has happened over the past few weeks and it was easy to overlook the news that Ed Markey became the newest member of the U.S. Senate as the elected replacement of Sec. of State John Kerry (Mo Cowan was a placeholder in between).  Markey will likely be safe in the progressive bastion of Massachusetts but Markey is already up by 5 points against former Senator Scott Brown.  Brown is more favorable but it should be noted that Markey just got out of a contested Senate race so his favorability ratings will likely go up to a normal rating soon enough.

Markey is a very good addition to the Senate by the way, a bit of news I have yet to comment on.  He’s a staunch progressive and will likely join Elizabeth Warren to be one of the best 1-2 combinations in the Senate today.

Hawaii:  Brian Schatz Gets Big Endorsement

• Al Gore Endorses Brian Schatz

Brian Schatz, appointed to the Senate seat that was vacated following the death of longtime Sen. Daniel Inouye by Governor Neil Abercrombie.  Well that didn’t go over well with some of the Hawaii establishment as it was well-known that Inouye hoped that Rep. Colleen Hanabusa would be his replacement.

With Schatz and Hanabusa both entered for next year’s Democratic primary, the stakes are pretty high.  The winner of this contest will easily cruise in the general and Schatz might’ve gotten a shot in the arm as Al Gore endorsed the progressive Schatz.  Schatz could be one of the leading voices on climate change in the Senate and I would support his candidacy over the more moderate Hanabusa.  But I do believe the Senate needs more diversity and Hanabusa is solid on some issues but is basically a “New Democrat”.

Keep your eye on this race that has been overlooked though.

Pollitics Today’s Coverage of 2014 races

• Georgia:  Michelle Nunn Enters Race
• Kentucky:  Mitch McConnell Earns Primary Challenge
• Kentucky:  Alison Lundergan Grimes Gets Off To A Great Start

White House 2016

• Rand And Ted Rising

PPP released a new national poll and it shows great news for supporters of Rand Paul and Ted Cruz.  Paul leads nationally with 16% and is followed by Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan and Chris Christie who are tied at 13%.  Rounding out the field is Ted Cruz at 12%, Marco Rubio at 10%, Rick Santorum and Bobby Jindal at 4% and Susana Martinez at 2%.

Cruz’s popularity amongst very conservative voters has him where he is and Paul seems to still be bathing in the limelight following his filibuster earlier in the year.  Marco Rubio suffers the biggest fall as he at one point was nearing 20% but likely thanks to his work on a proposed immigration bill he drops to 10%.

There will be a lot of volatility in this race but I guess right now we can consider Rand Paul one of the big favorites on the Republican side.

For the Democrats, Hillary still dominates the field as she hits 52% and is 40 percentage points higher than Joe Biden (who earlier trailed by 50% and 46%).  Elizabeth Warren comes in third with 6%, followed by Kirsten Gillibrand and Cory Booker at 5% and 3% respectively.  Brian Schweitzer, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley and Mark Warner don’t crack 2%.

Predictably Biden leads the field without Hillary at 34% and is followed by Warren at 13%, Andrew Cuomo at 10%, Booker at 4%, Gillibrand at 3%, O’Malley at 3% and Schweitzer and Warner at 2%.

Without the pair, the field becomes much more vague as Warren leads with 20%, Cuomo at 11%, Booker at 8%, Gillibrand at 5%, Schweitzer at 4%, Warner at 3% and O’Malley at 2%.  Someone else/Not sure wins with 47% of the vote in that scenario in which I think the only likely challengers would be Cuomo, Warner and O’Malley.

In the hypothetical head-to-head matchups, Hillary still leads the field but she is now only up by one against Christie, two against Ryan, three points against Bush and five points against Rubio.  Rand Paul trails by 8% which as PPP notes, is proof that the favorite Republican candidate is the worst general election candidate.

What race are you watching?  Feel free to comment!

Mitch McConnell Earns Primary Challenge

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Alison Lundergan Grimes, Kentucky, Matt Bevin, Mitch McConnell, politics

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Understandably, much of the speculation regarding the Kentucky race has focused on the assumed general election contest between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes.  Given McConnell’s unpopularity and Grimes’s success in a state that has some blue-collar Democrats in it as well as added storylines of McConnell being the Minority Leader and having millions to spend; this race has to be the most anticipated of the 2014 cycle.

But we are forgetting a few things, I guess.  For one, both of these candidates now have to deal with contested primaries.  Grimes has to deal with contractor Ed Marksberry who will likely position himself to Grimes’s left and will likely not pose much of a threat but we never really thought McConnell would have a credible challenger.

Well that last statement now appears to be bust as businessman Matt Bevin will announce today that he is indeed challenging the six-term Republican in a primary.  Bevin will position himself to McConnell’s right (stating that Tea Party groups have tried to coerce him into making a bid) and has air time slotted for this week.

Bevin is connected to a Louisville hedge fund, Wayward Partners as well as being the founder of Integrity Asset Management and was CEO until it was sold in 2010 to a Michigan firm.  Another part of Bevin’s resume is that he owns Bevin Brothers Mfg. Co. which is based in East Hampton, Connecticut that was founded by his great-great-great-grandfather in the 1830s.  He’s also a veteran of the armed forces as he served in the U.S. Army.

Given Bevin’s ties to various business as well as being a “hedge fundie”, it seems pretty safe to assume that he will be able to raise quite a bit of cash.  He may or may not be a firebrand but given the unpopularity that McConnell has in Kentucky, the Minority Leader is going to have to use up some resources to counter the fledging campaign of Bevin’s.

This brings us to Alison Lundergan Grimes who will likely have a much less heated primary and will be able to comfortably raise money, sharpen her stumping speeches, tour the state, raise money and ready her general election push while McConnell may (or may not) have his hands full with Bevin.

Now Bevin’s primary could just end up making a lot of noise but not adding any punches either.  McConnell will have millions upon millions and given how unknown Bevin is, McConnell could just start lobbing punches at him the minute he enters the race.  I’m sure the fact that Bevin has a business in Connecticut will be repeated a lot by the McConnell team for the next year or so.

But while McConnell is dealing with the right, this is just excellent news for Grimes.  At the absolute worst, McConnell wins by a large amount but still has to burn some cash.  At its most likely outcome, McConnell wins but burns a bit more cash than he anticipates.

If we play the hypothetical and McConnell loses to Bevin?  Oh man.  That might be one of the biggest political upsets and could very well tip the state to the Democrats.

But let’s just see how this plays out as this primary should now have your attention.

 

Peter King For President?: The Pollitics Today Election News Dump!

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Deval Patrick, Kay Hagan, Mark Begich, Monica Lindeen, Peter King, politics, Tom Cotton

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Hello readers, I believe it is time for a new edition of the Election News Dump!  For those unfamiliar with this portion of the website, consider this where we put all the election stories that aren’t worthy of a full-length post but are still noteworthy.  We mostly stick with Senate and 2016 news unless something major happens in one of the House races.

With all that being said, let’s see what’s going on today in the electoral news.

Senate ’14

Montana:  Another Noteworthy Democrat Declines Bid

• Monica Lindeen Will Not Run For Senate

After the announcement that Brian Schweitzer would not enter the Montana Senate race, we turned our attention to the rest of the Democratic bench.  One of the names we dropped was that of Auditor Monica Lindeen who would be term-limited in 2016.  Lindeen has decided though to announce that she will not run for the Senate seat left though I wonder if it is out of deference to Superintendent of Public Education Denise Juneau who seems to be a good bet to earn establishment support and to run.

If Juneau does say no though, expect Democrats to go all-in to try to convince Lieutenant Governor John Walsh to enter the race.  If he declines, it gets ugly.

North Carolina:  Kay Hagan Widens Lead

• Kay Hagan Continues To Lead GOP Hopefuls

Republicans are foaming at the mouth (well that’s not a surprise) over taking back some of the Senate seats they lost in 2008, when Democrats steamrolled their way to 60 seats in the Senate.  One of the seats the Republicans are targeting is the one held by Kay Hagan of North Carolina.  Given how North Carolina, although trending its way to battleground status, is still fairly red; it makes sense.

Still, if they are going to take North Carolina they will need to step their game up as PPP finds Hagan with double digit leads over some of her current and potential challengers (including Reps. Renee Elmers and Virginia Foxx).  What really helps Hagan’s candidacy is the extreme unpopularity of the North Carolina Republican-held state legislature, which includes announced candidate Thom Tillis (who is House Speaker).

Alaska:  Begich Raises Money

• Mark Begich Nearly Raises $1 Million

Just like fellow freshman Kay Hagan, Mark Begich of Alaska will have the heat turned up on him this year as he vies for reelection.  Alaska however is much more red than North Carolina which leads to Begich’s target being a bit more wider.

Still the good news for Begich is that he brought in nearly $1 million this past quarter which gives him about $2 million cash on hand.  Alaska is a state without a major media market and its pretty easy to run in and Begich already has a nice war chest to work with.  I tend to think out of the group of Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu, Hagan & Begich that the latter two are the safest.  Hagan has no real big challengers and Begich might squeak by if the Republicans again nominate Joe Miller.

Arkansas:  Tom Cotton addresses attacks over “ambition”

• Tom Cotton Defends Ambition

Tom Cotton is probably going to run for Senate, I have nothing to prove that with other than the fact that he seems to really be prepping for it.  It’ll be a risk though if Cotton decides to run.  If he loses the Senate seat, he really will be out of politics as he would have to forfeit his newly-won House seat.

Pryor is probably the number one incumbent target of the GOP and if anything, Arkansas is getting more and more red by the cycle.  Still, Cotton will have to be fully sure he can win this or he’ll be giving up a shot at House leadership.

Race To The White House 2016

• Peter King Open To A 2016 Bid

Oh boy.  Peter King, the Long Island congressman that is equally obsessed and paranoid over national security, is apparently open to the idea of making a bid for the White House.  If King were interested in running (he wouldn’t have to cede his seat), it would probably be best if he retired from the House.  Vanity campaigns in potentially swing district sounds like a recipe for a prime pickup opportunity.

• Deval Patrick Not Running For President?

The reason I lobbed a question mark at the end just because you never know what’s going to happen, but it seems that we have our first denial of 2016!  Patrick though could be a prime VP candidate for whomever the Democrats nominate (HILLARY) for President.

Feel free to send tips in the comments section!

With Schweitzer Out, Focus Turns On Trio Of Women In Montana Senate Race

Tags

Brian Schweitzer, Denise Juneau, Jon Tester, Monica Lindeen, Montana, politics, Stephanie Schriock

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Before the verdict was announced in the George Zimmerman case, the big news on Saturday was the decision made by former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer to not run for the Senate seat that is up for grabs following the retirement of Max Baucus.

Schweitzer was long-thought to be preparing for a run so the news of his sudden decline, really throws this race into toss-up/lean red territory.  The Democrats are trying to hold seats from their very successful 2008 campaign in which they elected Democrats in red states such as Alaska and North Carolina as well as seats they retained in Louisiana and Arkansas.  With the retirement of Tim Johnson and the refusal to run by former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, South Dakota is essentially lost as is West Virginia following the retirement of Jay Rockefeller.

The last thing the Democrats wanted was another wide-open seat and Schweitzer’s refusal to run, for whatever reason, has to be causing Democrats nationally to sweat a little harder now that 2014 gets closer with each month that passes by.

Still, however, if you want to remain an optimist Montana is a bit more purple than South Dakota and West Virginia (and for that matter Louisiana and Arkansas).  Montana has a Democratic Governor and two of its Senators rep Team Blue as well.  This isn’t a state that’s unafraid to vote blue on a state level still and the Democrats do have some semblance of a bench here, unlike South Dakota.

The number one candidate, in my eyes, seems to be State Superintendent of Public Education Denise Juneau.  Juneau has won two statewide elections, albeit very narrowly in 2012, so she has some electoral experience.  But she is someone that could easily earn the support of teachers and educators across the state and her profile was enhanced a tad in 2012 when she spoke at the Democratic National Convention.  It is worth noting that Juneau shared the stage on the same night as Lilly Ledbetter, Planned Parenthood head Cecile Richards, Tammy Duckworth and Barbara Mikulski (the longest serving female Senator in U.S. history) so the Democrats are aware of her potential for a promotion.

Juneau was also the first Native American to win a statewide contest in Montana and does appear to be someone who has a very attractive profile as a candidate.  In terms of fundraising, Superintendent of Public Education isn’t a marquee race necessarily but she outraised her Republican opponent by about $50,000.  Given Montana’s lack of a major media market, fundraising isn’t the most important thing on the docket.

Still you have to assume that Juneau is the number one recruit now that Schweitzer is out.

But if Juneau declines (or accepts for that matter), she could have a credible challenger in Monica Lindeen who is the Auditor of Montana and is well-connected to Montana politics given how she was at one point, Vice Chair of the Democratic Party of Montana.  Lindeen has won two elections as Auditor by fairly safe margins and seems to have solid electoral chops as she served in the Montana House of Representatives as well, though was unsuccessful in a run for Congress in 2006 against then-Rep. Denny Rehberg.  So, that being said, she has at least tried to get a promotion to D.C. at one point.

Lindeen is also term-limited and can’t run again in 2016.  One of the downswings to Lindeen though was her settlement of a lawsuit started by a fired employee that had to deal with the accusation that Schweitzer’s brother, Walt, “illegally solicited political donations from fellow employees in a state building”.  I can only imagine that in a hotly contested race, you’ll hear plenty more about that.  Still Lindeen is also a credible candidate.

The last name being bandied around is EMILY’s List President Stephanie Schriock who was had had plenty of national press over the past few years.  EMILY’s List, for those unaware or vaguely familiar with it, is an organization that promotes Democratic women to run for electoral office so it would be kind of coincidental if their President runs against another woman for office.

Schriock though is very well-connected and with her ties to EMILY’s List and some national figures, she would have no trouble raising millions in Montana.  Like I stated earlier, Montana isn’t quite California but this race will become very competitive as the midterms near so the more money you have in your pocket; the better.  Schriock is a native Montanan and was Jon Tester’s Chief of Staff before heading Al Franken’s 2008 Senate campaign.

However, Schriock is unabashedly liberal which would be great if she was running in Minnesota or Wisconsin even but in Montana that would be considered a liability.  We could use great progressives in every state but sometimes the state just isn’t ready for it.

Nonetheless, the Democrats lost their biggest fish and with that the edge of the race but with still 17 months remaining until the midterm elections; there is plenty of time for one of these candidates to rise to the top.  For now, Montana is still a bit red so Republicans will have the edge here though we’ll see if their top candidates in former Gov. Marc Racicot or Rep. Steve Daines (he who would’ve served one term by the time the election rolls around) decides to make a run.

It’ll be a battle though, that’s for sure.

Brian Schweitzer Opting Out Of Senate Run

Tags

Brian Schweitzer, Denise Juneau, Monica Lindeen, Montana, politics, Senate, Stephanie Schriock

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If you are a Democrat that really wants to retain the Senate Majority, today is not a good day for us.  With the bevy of retirements from Team Blue this year in addition to Democrats serving in red states, it was already looking like a tall task for Democrats to play offensive.

Today’s news though feels like a dagger to Democratic hearts as news has leaked out that former Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer will not make a run for the seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Max Baucus.  Schweitzer was immensely popular in Montana during his tenure as Governor and also could’ve cleared the field on both sides of the party.

Insiders expected Schweitzer, who openly dissed Washington D.C. every chance he got, to make the plunge but now, attention turns to the rest of the Democratic Montana bench which does offer some promise unlike other states.  Montana is home to Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat who won a contested reelection bid in 2012 and Gov. Steve Bullock was also elected in that same cycle.  So unlike other states in the surrounding area, Montana has no qualms about electing a Democrat.

Speculation now rests though on who will be the next best bet for the Democratic Party.  Denise Juneau, the Superintendent of Public Instruction, is looking at the race as is state insurance commissioner Monica Lindeen and EMILY’s list President Stephanie Schriock.  All who are decent candidates in their own right and Schriock could raise plenty of money easily though Montana is a state without a major media market.

When making the argument on who would be the best bet, Juneau seems to be the one who would have the most support though Lindeen safely won her two elections by high single digit margins.  Juneau squeaked out challenger Sandy Welch by about half a percentage point in 2012 while Lindeen won by around 8%.

Nonetheless this seat is now dangerously close to “toss-up” territory or even leaning Republican given the lack of a big name Democrat in the race.  However, I wouldn’t completely give up on this seat either; North Dakota is a much redder state and still elected Heidi Heitkamp to replace retiring Democrat Kent Conrad.

One thing is for sure though, Democrats are going to be fighting a bit uphill to retain this seat and its going to take a big fight for them to keep it.  Republicans must be salivating at their attempts to turn this seat red.

Kristi Noem Not Running: The Pollitics Today Election News Dump!

Tags

Hillary Clinton, Joni Ernst, Kristi Noem, Mike Rounds, politics, Thad Cochran

Follow us on Twitter @PolliticsToday for more insight, commentary and updates concerning this blog or “LIKE” us on Facebook.  Seriously, do those things.  Please?

Well its been awhile, but it is time for a new edition of the Election News Dump!  For those unfamiliar with this portion of the website, consider this where we put all the election stories that aren’t worthy of a full-length post but are still noteworthy.  We mostly stick with Senate and 2016 news unless something major happens in one of the House races.

With all that being said, let’s see what’s going on today.

Senate ’14

South Dakota:  The fight for the primary still nonexistent

• Rep. Kristi Noem Not Running

This is not the best news if you are hoping for a muddied Republican primary but Rep. Kristi Noem, elected in the wave year of 2010, announced that she would not challenge former Gov. Mike Rounds to replace retiring Democrat Sen. Tim Johnson.  The South Dakota Senate race has been a let down for Democrats as Rounds seems to be prepared to steamroll over likely challenger Rick Weiland.

However, there is some hope that Rounds will still face a big-time primary as the Club for Growth was never keen on Noem and Tea Party groups are apparently unimpressed with the sophomore Representative.  If these groups want to challenge Rounds, focus will likely shift to former LG Steve Kirby or maybe a State Rep like Stace Nelson who I was told of by a person on Twitter.

Mississippi:  Cochran Unsure

• Thad Cochran Unsure About Reelection Bid

This is an older headline but since we haven’t really heard much out of Mississippi as sixth-term incumbent Thad Cochran is mulling retirement.  I would expect Cochran to step aside soon as the 75-year old Senator would have to deal with a Senate that’s getting increasingly “younger” (there’s been eight retirements this cycle, plus the death of Frank Lautenberg) and Cochran might want to just get out.  This seat would be safe Republican however, its worth keeping an eye on.

Iowa:  Will Republicans settle on a candidate?

• State Sen. Joni Ernst Mulls Iowa Bid

One of the better pickup opportunities for the Republican Party was thought to be Iowa. It is a “purple” state and the retirement of popular native son Tom Harkin left this seat vulnerable to Team Red.  The Democrats picked up Rep. Bruce Braley, a solid prospect, but Republicans were hedging their bets on Rep. Tom Latham to take the plunge.  Then Latham announced he wouldn’t run, conservative firebrand Rep. Steve King joined him in not running as well as Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz and LG Kim Reynolds.

What the Republicans are left with is their junior varsity squad.  Their current “recruits” is a Chief of Staff to Chuck Grassley (David Young), a Ron Paul-type candidate in Matt Whitaker and a radio show host.  However, Joni Ernst is considering a run in Iowa and I have no idea if it will be worth it but she would be (as of now) the only woman declared in the race as well as the only elected official.

New Jersey:  Great News For Booker

• Unions Likely To Stay Home In New Jersey Special

Here’s a boon for the Cory Booker campaign.  It looks like some of the key New Jersey unions including the NJEA and CWA are both staying home.  The NJEA (teachers union) would be against Booker given the Mayor’s reputation as a pro-charter school reformer.  However with both Reps. Rush Holt & Frank Pallone in the race, its not worth the unions time to not only spurn one of the Reps. who have a positive union record but also not worth antagonizing Booker who will likely win the seat.

White House 2016

• Hillary Clinton Is On Twitter

Hillary Clinton has now joined most of the world in joining Twitter and while that isn’t on par with a trip to Iowa or New Hampshire, its noteworthy in itself.  If Clinton is going to be “in touch” with voters, Twitter is probably one of the best places she could be on and with her meme avatar and such, she’s grasping the “Buzzfeed” world quite well I believe.

More updates coming throughout the week, keep your eyes peeled, discuss the races below and maybe post information we might have missed!